汇丰银行-亚洲地区-宏观策略-中国推动下的亚洲经济-2019.4-107页

1Economics●AsiaQ22019Bitofastumble.Afterholdingupwellformostof2018,activityinmuchofAsiahasstartedtosaglastquarter.Exportsarepartlytoblame,andnotjustbecauseofdisruptionsfromtheUS-Chinatradetensions:theglobalindustrialcycleisslippingandthedemandforelectronicshasweakenedsharply.Thegoodnews,however,isthatpolicymakersareresponding.TheFed,forone,signalledapauseforthisyear,whichopensupspaceforratecutsinanumberofmarkets.Morepotently,Chinabeatexpectationsandunveiledapunchytaxcutpackage.ThisshouldgoalongwaytostabilizeMainlanddemandinthecomingquarters,andtherebyputafloorunderregionaltrade.Thereis,itseems,stillsomegasleftinthetank.NowforthebiggerpictureItwasabumpyridelastyear,admittedly.Threebigshadowssuddenlyemergedovertheglobaleconomy.TheFed’stighteninglitafireunderthedollar,whippingfinancialmarketsabout,notleastinemergingmarketsespeciallysensitivetochangesinglobalfundingcosts.Then,tradetensionsbetweentheUSandChinariskedputtingadentinexports,whileraisinggreaterquestionsaboutthefutureshapeofthew