汇丰银行-全球经济二季度展望-2017.3.25-110页

Disclaimer&Disclosures:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofithttps://www.research.hsbc.comPlayvideowithJanetHenryGlobalEconomicsDriversandridersAmidthemostsynchronisedglobalupturnforyears……ChinaandtheUSareonceagainthedriversofgrowth……whiletheworld’ssurpluseconomiesrideontheircoat-tailsECONOMICSGLOBALQ22017By:JanetHenryandJamesPomeroy1ECONOMICS●GLOBALQ22017MorenormalTwoUSraterisesinthreemonths.ThelasttimethattheFedsawtheneedtotakesuchactionwasmorethanadecadeagointhefirsthalfof2006.Littlewonderthenthattalkofareturnto“normality”isrife.Globalgrowthispickingupandinflationhasrisen.Inevitablythereisasensethatthingsarefinallyreturningtoa“morenormal”environmentwherebytheextraordinaryworldofnear-zeroratesandfrequentdosesofquantitativeeasingmaynolongerberequiredtosustainevenamediocreexpansion.AhalttoECBQEnextyearactuallyseemsplausible.Theglobalcyclicalupturnlookstobethemostsynchronisedinyearswithev