德银-新兴市场-新兴市场展望2018：协同增长-20171207-136页

7December2017EmergingMarketsOutlook2018:SynchronizedGrowthPage4DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.EM2018OutlookOuroutlookfor2018isbrighterforemergingeconomiesandlesssoforemergingmarkets.AsynchronizedglobalgrowthissupportiveofEM,butnarrowinggapsandtighteningliquidityconditionsgloballyposethemainheadwindsforemergingmarkets.WeexpectEMgrowthtoremainsupportive,withAsia’scyclemostadvancedandLatAmplayingcatch-up.InAsia,anumberofCBsarealreadyhiking.LatAm’smacrooutlookwillimprovethemost,inourview-growthispickingupwhileCB’sstillhaveroomtoease.InAsia,withtheoutputgapclosed,riskstoinflationhavetiltedtotheupside.Astheregion’smonetarypolicyshiftstowardsexplicittightening,althoughmuchlessthantheFed,itsfiscalpolicyislikelytoturnexpansionary,withtheexceptionofChina.InanumberCBsstillhaveroomtocutormaintainsupportivestanceevenasgrowthrecovers.WeseeBrazil,Russia,Egypt,cuttingratesintostronger2018growth.WeexpectEMspecificstoplayamoreimportantrolein2018,withastrongfocusonpolitics.Aheavypoliticalcalendarcanbrin