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德银-新兴市场-新兴市场展望2018:协同增长-20171207-136页

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  • 2020-02-15 22:10:21
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7December2017EmergingMarketsOutlook2018:SynchronizedGrowthPage4DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.EM2018OutlookOuroutlookfor2018isbrighterforemergingeconomiesandlesssoforemergingmarkets.AsynchronizedglobalgrowthissupportiveofEM,butnarrowinggapsandtighteningliquidityconditionsgloballyposethemainheadwindsforemergingmarkets.WeexpectEMgrowthtoremainsupportive,withAsia’scyclemostadvancedandLatAmplayingcatch-up.InAsia,anumberofCBsarealreadyhiking.LatAm’smacrooutlookwillimprovethemost,inourview-growthispickingupwhileCB’sstillhaveroomtoease.InAsia,withtheoutputgapclosed,riskstoinflationhavetiltedtotheupside.Astheregion’smonetarypolicyshiftstowardsexplicittightening,althoughmuchlessthantheFed,itsfiscalpolicyislikelytoturnexpansionary,withtheexceptionofChina.InanumberCBsstillhaveroomtocutormaintainsupportivestanceevenasgrowthrecovers.WeseeBrazil,Russia,Egypt,cuttingratesintostronger2018growth.WeexpectEMspecificstoplayamoreimportantrolein2018,withastrongfocusonpolitics.Aheavypoliticalcalendarcanbrin

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