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当前位置:首页 > 行业报告 > J.P. 摩根-全球宏观策略之全球宏观数据观察-2022.2.25-103页

J.P. 摩根-全球宏观策略之全球宏观数据观察-2022.2.25-103页

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  • 2022-03-05 17:50:27
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2EconomicResearchGlobalDataWatchFebruary25,2022JPMorganChaseBankNABruceKasman(1-212)834-5515bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comJosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comMichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.comarerisingandtheUSadministrationannouncedthatitisworkingwithIEAonthereleaseofoilfromglobalstrategicreserves(SPR).Takentogether,thispotentialsupplyincreasecouldoffsetasmuchastwo-thirdsoftheshortfallfromashut-offinRussianoilexports.Balancinganelevatedriskpremiumthatislikelytobesus-tainedagainsttheprospectofadditionalsupply,thisweekweraisedourbaselinecrudeoilpriceforecastfor2Q22to$110/bbl.Alignedwiththisview,aroundofforecastrevisionsbeganthisweekthatlookslikelytolower2Q22globalGDPbyroughly1%arwhileraisingCPIinflationbyalargeramount.Nomajorcentralbankiswillingtoriskdisruptingitsexpan-sionatthisstageandallwillhighlighttheirsensitivitytosignsofmaterialweaknessorcreditmarketstress.However,thecurrentshockistakingholdagainstthebackdropofagrowthpickupintheUSandWestern

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