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当前位置:首页 > 行业报告 > 摩根士丹利-亚太地区信贷策略:中国进一步压缩的六大障碍-2021.3.9-28页

摩根士丹利-亚太地区信贷策略:中国进一步压缩的六大障碍-2021.3.9-28页

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  • 2021-03-28 21:28:31
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TaperingandhigherratesmightnotbetherealhurdleforChinaHYspreadcompressionintheneartermGiventhevolatilityinUSratesinthepasttwoweeks,wehavebeengettingalotofquestionsfrominvestorswhoareworriedabouttheadverseimpactofhigherratesonChinaHY.AswementionedinWhat'sGoinginAsiaCredit,February23,2021,wethinkthatitisimportanttounderstandthedriversoftheincreaseinthenominalUST10YyieldbeforewecanassessitsimpactonChinaHY.WecanbreakdownthechangeinthenominalUST10Yyieldintobreakeveninflationandrealyields.FromlastNovemberuntilJanuary,mostoftheincreaseinthenominal10Yyieldwasdrivenbybreakevens.However,thischangedinFebruaryascloseto86%oftheincreasein10YUSTlastmonthwasdrivenbyrealyields(Exhibit3).OurUSratesteamexpectsrealyieldstoincreasefromherealongsidewiderbreakevens,drivingnominal10YUSThigherto1.7%(seeHigherRealYields–APlaybook,February19,2021).InourpreviousreportontheimpactofrisingratesonAsiacredit(seeTheImpactofRisingRatesonAsiaCredit,November9,2017),wementionedthatChinaHYtendstotightenwhentheincreaseisdriv

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