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当前位置:首页 > 行业报告 > HSBC-美股投资策略-预测神话2.0:美国债券收益率——重新审视误解-2021.1.29-30页

HSBC-美股投资策略-预测神话2.0:美国债券收益率——重新审视误解-2021.1.29-30页

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  • 2021-02-06 20:09:16
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Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.comInasimilarexercisetofouryearsago,wecollatedfeedbackaboutthe75bpUS10-yearTreasuryforecast......toidentifywhatwebelievearefivecommonmisconceptionscontributingtothedifferencesofopinionWealsoconsiderwhatmighthavetohappenforustochangeourlower-for-longeryieldforecastsMoneysupplyandreservegrowthleadstoinflationFearsof“currencydebasementandinflation”lingerbecauseofthemisconceptionthatincreasesinthemoneysupplyleadtohigherinflation.WethinkthereisafailuretofullyappreciatetheroleofreservesintheFed’sQE.Onlyifcentralbanksweretobypassthebanks,andgivemoneytothepublic,wouldwechangeourview.FiscalpolicycanbeloosenedaggressivelyandwillpushupyieldsThepolarextremefromthemonetaristdogmaisthe“freelunch”brigade,thosewhobelievelowinterestrat

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